相关论文: Dansgaard-Oeschger events: tipping points in the c…
The nonequilibrium dynamic phase transition, in the kinetic Ising model in presence of an oscillating magnetic field, has been studied by Monte Carlo simulation. The fluctuation of dynamic order parameter has been studied as a function of…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
Hydrodynamic instabilities often cause spatio-temporal pattern formations and transitions between them. We investigate a model experimental system, a density oscillator, where the bifurcation from a resting state to an oscillatory state is…
We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
Oscillatory systems with time-delayed pulsatile feedback appear in various applied and theoretical research areas, and received a growing interest in the last years. For such systems, we report a remarkable scenario of destabilization of a…
Some ODE models treat ecological disturbance as a continuous process, even disturbances such as fire that occur almost instantaneously on the timescale of system recovery. Alternatively, flow-kick models resolve disturbances as discrete…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…
We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
A hanging glacier at the east face of Weisshorn broke off in 2005. We were able to monitor and measure surface motion and icequake activity for 21 days up to three days prior to the break-off. Results are presented from the analysis of…
Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This…
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping…
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has led to fundamentally new ways to…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…
A model of the premelting fluctuations is proposed, based on the Landau mean field theory applied to a first-order phase transition. Using the thermodynamic potential, the nonlinear Langevin equation for the order parameter is formulated,…
Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…