相关论文: Risk, VaR, CVaR and their associated Portfolio Opt…

Microgrid operation is highly vulnerable to short-term load uncertainty, while conventional predict-then-optimize pipelines cannot fully align probabilistic forecasting quality with downstream robust scheduling performance. This paper…

In this paper, we study a novel episodic risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem, named Iterated CVaR RL, which aims to maximize the tail of the reward-to-go at each step, and focuses on tightly controlling the risk of getting…

In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…

This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…

Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…

We look at optimal liability-driven portfolios in a family of fat-tailed and extremal risk measures, especially in the context of pension fund and insurance fixed cashflow liability profiles, but also those arising in derivatives books such…

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a ubiquitous decision-making problem that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. Standard formulations exclude risk in decision making. Risk notably complicates the basic reward-maximising…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of Neyman-Pearson type binary solution. We…

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization that utilizes a unique combination of synthetic data generation and a CVaR-constraint. We formulate the portfolio optimization problem as an asset allocation problem in which each asset…

We introduce a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns, as parsimonous as the Gaussian framework. Using calculation techniques of functional integration and Feynman diagrams borrowed from…

The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the…

We propose an iterative gradient-based algorithm to efficiently solve the portfolio selection problem with multiple spectral risk constraints. Since the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a special case of the spectral risk measure, our…

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a leading tail-risk measure in finance, central to both regulatory and portfolio optimization frameworks. Classical estimation of CVaR and its gradients relies on Monte Carlo simulation, incurring…

Optimizing Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR) using policy gradient (a.k.a CVaR-PG) faces significant challenges of sample inefficiency. This inefficiency stems from the fact that it focuses on tail-end performance and overlooks many sampled…

We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via…

Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…

The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…

In high-stakes machine learning applications, it is crucial to not only perform well on average, but also when restricted to difficult examples. To address this, we consider the problem of training models in a risk-averse manner. We propose…