相关论文: The Waldmeier Effect in Sunspot Cycles
Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…
Aims. In this paper, we aim to study the time dependence of sunspot group areas in a large sample composed of various databases spanning over 130 years, used state-of-the-art statistical methods. Methods. For a carefully selected but…
Commenting the 11-year sunspot cycle, Wolf (1859, MNRAS 19, 85-86) conjectured that "the variations of spot frequency depend on the influences of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn". The high synchronization of our planetary system is…
The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the…
There exists a considerable amount of research claiming a puzzling anti-correlation between the neutrino detection rate at the Homestake experiment and indicators of solar activity such as the sunspot number, giving rise to explanations…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
Recently Pop ({\it Solar Phys.} {\bf 276}, 351, 2012) identified a Laplace (or double exponential) distribution in the number of days with a given absolute value in the change over a day, in sunspot number, for days on which the sunspot…
Sunquakes are one of the more distinct secondary phenomena related to solar flares, where energy deposition in the lower layers of the Sun's atmosphere excites acoustic waves easily visible in Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)…
As recently found, the distribution of sunspots is non-axisymmetric and spot group formation implies the existence of two persistent active longitudes separated by 180 degrees. Here we quantitatively study the non-axisymmetry of sunspot…
Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior -- which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique…
One of the most striking manifestations of orderly behavior emerging out of complex interactions in any astrophysical system is the 11-year cycle of sunspots. However, direct sunspot observations and reconstructions of long-term solar…
We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude…
The theory of the solar/stellar activity cycles is presented, based on the mean-field concept in magnetohydrodynamics. A new approach to the formulation of the electromotive force and the theory of differential rotation and meridional…
We compare spectra of the zonal harmonics of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun using observation results and solar dynamo models. The main solar activity cycle as recorded in these tracers is a much more complicated phenomenon than…
Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically…
Waiting time distributions of solar flares and {\sl coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} exhibit power law-like distribution functions with slopes in the range of $\alpha_{\tau} \approx 1.4-3.2$, as observed in annual data sets during 4 solar…
We analyze the temporal distribution of sunspot groups for even and odd cycles in the range SC12-SC24. It seems that cycle 24 is a characteristic even cycle, although with low amplitude. The number of large sunspot groups for cycle 24 is…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…