相关论文: Efficient Monte Carlo for high excursions of Gauss…

Gaussian random fields play an important role in many areas of science and engineering. In practice, they are often simulated by sampling from a high-dimensional multivariate normal distribution, which arises from the discretisation of a…

The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…

Hypothesis tests calibrated by (re)sampling methods (such as permutation, rank and bootstrap tests) are useful tools for statistical analysis, at the computational cost of requiring Monte-Carlo sampling for calibration. It is common and…

Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…

We use the concept of excursions for the prediction of random variables without any moment existence assumptions. To do so, an excursion metric on the space of random variables is defined which appears to be a kind of a weighted…

This paper considers the problem of simultaneously estimating rare-event probabilities for a class of Gaussian random fields. A conventional rare-event simulation method is usually tailored to a specific rare event and consequently would…

The computational cost of a Monte Carlo algorithm can only be meaningfully discussed when taking into account the magnitude of the resulting statistical error. Aiming for a fixed error per particle, we study the scaling behavior of the…

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

Demand for high-performance, robust, and safe autonomous systems has grown substantially in recent years. These objectives motivate the desire for efficient safety-theoretic reasoning that can be embedded in core decision-making tasks such…

Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

This article considers stochastic algorithms for efficiently solving a class of large scale non-linear least squares (NLS) problems which frequently arise in applications. We propose eight variants of a practical randomized algorithm where…

This article presents an algorithm that generates a conservative confidence interval of a specified length and coverage probability for the power of a Monte Carlo test (such as a bootstrap or permutation test). It is the first method that…

One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…

This article is a pedagogical review of Monte Carlo methods for the self-avoiding walk, with emphasis on the extraordinarily efficient algorithms developed over the past decade.

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to…

Rue and Held (2005) proposed a method for efficiently computing the Gaussian likelihood for stationary Markov random field models, when the data locations fall on a complete regular grid, and the model has no additive error term. The…

The paper contains results in three areas: First we present a general estimate for tail probabilities of Gaussian quadratic forms with known expectation and variance. Thereafter we analyze the distribution of norms of complex Gaussian…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…