相关论文: On Prediction of EOP

In this paper, we propose a dynamical systems perspective of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. More precisely, we can analyze the EM algorithm as a nonlinear state-space dynamical system. The EM algorithm is widely adopted for…

The geomagnetic Kp index is derived from the K index measurements obtained from thirteen stations located around the Earth geomagnetic latitudes between $48^\circ$ and $63^\circ$. This index is processed every three hours, is…

Forecast of optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters relevant for ground-based astronomy is becoming an important goal for telescope planning and AO instruments optimization in several major telescope. Such detailed and accurate…

Bayesian adaptive designs enable flexible clinical trials by adapting features based on accumulating data. Among these, Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization (BRAR) skews patient allocation towards more promising treatments based on…

To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of…

This paper presents the Distributed Primal Outer Approximation (DiPOA) algorithm for solving Sparse Convex Programming (SCP) problems with separable structures, efficiently, and in a decentralized manner. The DiPOA algorithm development…

We consider model reduction of large-scale multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) systems using tangential interpolation in the frequency domain. Our scheme is related to the recently-developed Adaptive Antoulas--Anderson (AAA) algorithm, which…

Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and…

This paper develops a novel, fully automated forecast averaging scheme, which combines LASSO estimation method with Principal Component Averaging (PCA). LASSO-PCA (LPCA) explores a pool of predictions based on a single model but calibrated…

Non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) has been considered one of the most promising radio access techniques for next-generation cellular networks. In this paper, we study the joint user and power scheduling for downlink NOMA over fading…

This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…

In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning…

In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Forecasting election results is one of the most exciting and demanding tasks in the area of market research, especially due to the fact that decisions have to be…

The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption…

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…

The Operating Room Scheduling (ORS) problem deals with the optimization of daily operating room surgery schedules. It is a challenging problem subject to many constraints, like to determine the starting time of different surgeries and…

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has proven to be computationally challenging due to its inherent multiscale nature. Currently, the highest resolution NWP models use a horizontal resolution of about 10km. In order to increase the…

Providing forecasts for ultra-long time series plays a vital role in various activities, such as investment decisions, industrial production arrangements, and farm management. This paper develops a novel distributed forecasting framework to…