相关论文: Fat-Tailed Distributions and Levy Processes

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

Evidence for fine-tuning of physical parameters suitable for life can perhaps be explained by almost any combination of providence, coincidence or multiverse. A multiverse usually includes parts unobservable to us, but if the theory for it…

A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…

A characteristic property of networks is their ability to propagate influences, such as infectious diseases, behavioral changes, and failures. An especially important class of such contagious dynamics is that of cascading processes. These…

We consider asymptotics of the velocity derivatives probability distribution functions (PDFs) in Burgers' turbulence. We argue that in the forced case the same power laws as in the decaying case are realized for an infinite system.

Species extinction is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. Competition between species in a population is considered by ecological niche-based theories as a key factor leading to different severity of species…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

How should my own decisions affect my beliefs about the outcomes I expect to achieve? If taking a certain action makes me view myself as a certain type of person, it might affect how I think others view me, and how I view others who are…

The problem of pattern formation in a generic two species reaction--diffusion model is studied, under the hypothesis that only one species can diffuse. For such a system, the classical Turing instability cannot take place. At variance, by…

Stochastic optimal control problems have a long tradition in applied probability, with the questions addressed being of high relevance in a multitude of fields. Even though theoretical solutions are well understood in many scenarios, their…

We consider the Chance Constrained Model Predictive Control problem for polynomial systems subject to disturbances. In this problem, we aim at finding optimal control input for given disturbed dynamical system to minimize a given cost…

Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall…

Autonomous systems, including generative AI, have been adopted faster than previous digital innovations. Their impact on society might as well be more profound, with a radical restructuring of the economy of knowledge and dramatic…

The smoothing distribution is the conditional distribution of the diffusion process in the space of trajectories given noisy observations made continuously in time. It is generally difficult to sample from this distribution. We use the…

Problem of time-optimal control of linear systems with fractional dynamics is treated in the paper from the convex-analytic standpoint. A linear system of fractional differential equations involving Riemann--Liouville derivatives is…

There has long been an impression that reliabilism implies externalism and that frequentist statistics, due to its reliabilist nature, is inherently externalist. I argue, however, that frequentist statistics can plausibly be understood as a…

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Since the turn of the century, there has been increased interest in the application of heavy-tailed distributions, particularly stable distributions, to problems in physics and finance. Although, the tails of stable distributions provide a…

Spreading processes on graphs are a natural model for a wide variety of real-world phenomena, including information spread over social networks and biological diseases spreading over contact networks. Often, the networks over which these…