相关论文: Spatio-temporal Functional Regression on Paleo-eco…

We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…

In climate change study, the infrared spectral signatures of climate change have recently been conceptually adopted, and widely applied to identifying and attributing atmospheric composition change. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Mechanistic statistical models are commonly used to study the flow of biological processes. For example, in landscape genetics, the aim is to infer spatial mechanisms that govern gene flow in populations. Existing statistical approaches in…

Both evolution and ecology have long been concerned with the impact of variable environmental conditions on observed levels of genetic diversity within and between species. We model the evolution of a quantitative trait under selection that…

Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called…

Many questions that we have about the history and dynamics of organisms have a geographical component: How many are there, and where do they live? How do they move and interbreed across the landscape? How were they moving a thousand years…

The twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss define a strong need for functional diversity monitoring. While the availability of high-quality ecological monitoring data is increasing, the quantification of functional diversity so…

Natural ecosystems, in particular on the microbial scale, are inhabited by a large number of species. The population size of each species is affected by interactions of individuals with each other and by spatial and temporal changes in…

Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…

This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

Over the last few decades, ecologists have come to appreciate that key ecological patterns, which describe ecological communities at relatively large spatial scales, are not only scale dependent, but also intimately intertwined. The…

We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction…

Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption,…

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

The investigation of leaf-level traits in response to varying environmental conditions has immense importance for understanding plant ecology. Remote sensing technology enables measurement of the reflectance of plants to make inferences…

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…