相关论文: Tackling climate change through energy efficiency:…
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…
This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics…
In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. "Adaptive dynamics" is the standard mathematical framework to describe…
Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposes different mitigation strategies to achieve the net emissions reductions that would be required to follow a pathway that limits global warming to 1.5{\deg}C with no or limited overshoot.…
The system decomposition theory has recently been developed for the dynamic analysis of nonlinear compartmental systems. The application of this theory to the ecosystem analysis has also been introduced in a separate article. Based on this…
Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…
The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This…
Energy savings from efficiency methods in individual residential buildings are measured in 10's of dollars, while the energy savings from such measures nationally would amount to 10's of billions of dollars, leading to the "tragedy of the…
Climate policy modelling is a key tool for assessing mitigation strategies in complex systems, where uncertainty is inherent and unavoidable. We present a general methodology for extensive uncertainty analysis in this field. While other…
Despite many decades of research, economically grounded models that analyse energy consumption and energy-efficiency adoption within a unified framework remain underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by proposing a model of…
Addressing complex societal challenges, such as improving public health, fostering honesty in workplaces, or encouraging eco-friendly behaviour requires effective nudges to influence human behaviour at scale. Intervention science seeks to…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…
We introduce a new, and quite general variational model for opinion dynamics based on pairwise interaction potentials and a range of opinion evolution protocols ranging from random interactions to global synchronous flows in the opinion…
As urbanization and climate change progress, urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in urban heat can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy…
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not…
The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium…
The outcomes of elections, product sales, and the structure of social connections are all determined by the choices individuals make when presented with a set of options, so understanding the factors that contribute to choice is crucial. Of…
The uncertainty quantification and risk modeling are hot topics in the operation and planning of energy systems. The system operators and planners are decision-makers that need to handle the uncertainty of input data of their models. As an…