相关论文: A Monte Carlo Algorithm for Sampling Rare Events: …

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach combines ideas from large deviation theory and adaptive importance…

In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…

We propose a modification, based on the RESTART (repetitive simulation trials after reaching thresholds) and DPR (dynamics probability redistribution) rare event simulation algorithms, of the standard diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm.…

We present here two irreversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for general discrete state systems, one of the algorithms is based on the random-scan Gibbs sampler for discrete states and the other on its improved version, the…

In this review, we address the use of Monte Carlo methods for approximating definite integrals of the form $Z = \int L(x) d P(x)$, where $L$ is a target function (often a likelihood) and $P$ a finite measure. We present vertical-likelihood…

Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm,…

Distributed detection fusion with high-dimension conditionally dependent observations is known to be a challenging problem. When a fusion rule is fixed, this paper attempts to make progress on this problem for the large sensor networks by…

The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

We apply extensive Monte Carlo simulations to study the probability distribution $P(m)$ of the order parameter $m$ for the simple cubic Ising model with periodic boundary condition at the transition point. Sampling is performed with the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

We present a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm that scales existing Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering and feature allocation to big data. The algorithm is valid for any prior on random subsets such as partitions and latent feature…