相关论文: Forecasting for stationary binary time series

Information in the time distribution of points in a state space reconstructed from observed data yields a test for ``nonstationarity''. Framed in terms of a statistical hypothesis test, this numerical algorithm can discern whether some…

We develop a theory for solving continuous time optimal stopping problems for non-linear expectations. Our motivation is to consider problems in which the stopper uses risk measures to evaluate future rewards.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

Many real-world sequential decision-making problems involve critical systems with financial risks and human-life risks. While several works in the past have proposed methods that are safe for deployment, they assume that the underlying…

This paper extends the single-item single-stocking location non-stationary stochastic inventory problem to relax the assumption of independent demand. We present a mathematical programming-based solution method that relaxes the assumption…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

A novel quickest detection setting is proposed which is a generalization of the well-known Bayesian change-point detection model. Suppose \{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i\geq 1} is a sequence of pairs of random variables, and that S is a stopping time with…

In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…

The problem of clustering is considered, for the case when each data point is a sample generated by a stationary ergodic process. We propose a very natural asymptotic notion of consistency, and show that simple consistent algorithms exist,…

The problem of clustering is considered, for the case when each data point is a sample generated by a stationary ergodic process. We propose a very natural asymptotic notion of consistency, and show that simple consistent algorithms exist,…

In this paper we address the statistical problem of testing if a stationary process is Gaussian. The observation consists in a finite sample path of the process. Using a random projection technique introduced and studied in Cuesta-Albertos…

In this paper we study different approaches for time series modeling. The forecasting approaches using linear models, ARIMA alpgorithm, XGBoost machine learning algorithm are described. Results of different model combinations are shown. For…

We survey aspects of prediction theory in infinitely many dimensions, with a view to the theory and applications of functional time series.

This article presents a novel method for prediction of stationary functional time series, in particular for trajectories that share a similar pattern but display variable phases. The limitation of most of the existing prediction…

We propose an informal test for stationarity in a time series which checks for the compatibility of nonlinear approximations to the dynamics made in different segments of the sequence. The segments are compared directly, rather than via…

A proper forecast of the menstrual cycle is meaningful for women's health, as it allows individuals to take preventive actions to minimize cycle-associated discomforts. In addition, precise prediction can be useful for planning important…

How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a…

This paper considers a distributed stochastic optimization problem where the goal is to minimize the time average of a cost function subject to a set of constraints on the time averages of a related stochastic processes called penalties. We…

The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data.…