相关论文: Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estima…

Speech classification has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications, particularly in classifying physical and mental states. However, these tasks are challenging due to the high variability in speech signals. Ensemble…

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…

Capturing uncertainty in models of complex dynamical systems is crucial to designing safe controllers. Stochastic noise causes aleatoric uncertainty, whereas imprecise knowledge of model parameters leads to epistemic uncertainty. Several…

Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) must resolve conflicts when different modalities provide contradictory information, a process we term modality following. Prior work measured this behavior only with coarse dataset-level statistics,…

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle states that the position and momentum of a particle cannot be sharply determined simultaneously. Standard-deviation and entropic formulations capture the spread of the probability distribution but say…

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

Despite the celebrated success of stochastic control approaches for uncertain systems, such approaches are limited in the ability to handle non-Gaussian uncertainties. This work presents an adaptive robust control for linear uncertain…

Forecast quality should be assessed in the context of what is possible in theory and what is reasonable to expect in practice. Often, one can identify an approximate upper bound to a probabilistic forecast's sharpness, which sets a lower,…

Uncertainties influencing the dynamical systems pose a significant challenge in estimating the achievable performance of a controller aiming to control such uncertain systems. When the uncertainties are of stochastic nature, obtaining hard…

Quantification of the impact of uncertainty in material properties as well as the input ground motion on structural responses is an important step in implementing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Among various…

Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

Epistemic uncertainty is crucial for safety-critical applications and data acquisition tasks. Yet, we find an important phenomenon in deep learning models: an epistemic uncertainty collapse as model complexity increases, challenging the…

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

In many macroeconomic applications, confidence intervals for impulse responses are constructed by estimating VAR models in levels - ignoring cointegration rank uncertainty. We investigate the consequences of ignoring this uncertainty. We…

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Sample size determination for cluster randomised trials (CRTs) is challenging as it requires robust estimation of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC). Typically, the sample size is chosen to provide a certain level of power to…