相关论文: Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection

A change point problem occurs in many statistical applications. If there exist change points in a model, it is harmful to make a statistical analysis without any consideration of the existence of the change points and the results derived…

Online detection of changes in stochastic systems, referred to as sequential change detection or quickest change detection, is an important research topic in statistics, signal processing, and information theory, and has a wide range of…

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

Consider observations $y_1,\dots,y_n$ on nodes of a connected graph, where the $y_i$ independently come from $N(\theta_i, \sigma^2)$ distributions and an unknown partition divides the $n$ observations into blocks. One well-studied class of…

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a…

Online experiments in internet systems, also known as A/B tests, are used for a wide range of system tuning problems, such as optimizing recommender system ranking policies and learning adaptive streaming controllers. Decision-makers…

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training…

We propose a novel approach for change-point detection and parameter learning in multivariate non-stationary time series exhibiting oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the process through a piecewise function defined by a sum of…

We propose a grid-based methodology for online changepoint detection that allows offline changepoint tests to be applied to sequentially observed data. The methodology achieves low update and storage costs by testing for changepoints over a…

In this paper, we study the offline change point localization problem in a sequence of dependent nonparametric random dot product graphs. To be specific, assume that at every time point, a network is generated from a nonparametric random…

Change point detection is an important part of time series analysis, as the presence of a change point indicates an abrupt and significant change in the data generating process. While many algorithms for change point detection have been…

Predictive human models often need to adapt their parameters online from human data. This raises previously ignored safety-related questions for robots relying on these models such as what the model could learn online and how quickly could…

We propose a Bayesian method to detect change points for functional data. We extract the features of a sequence of functional data by the discrete wavelet transform (DWT), and treat each sequence of feature independently. We believe there…

In this paper, we study optimization problems where the cost function contains time-varying parameters that are unmeasurable and evolve according to linear, yet unknown, dynamics. We propose a solution that leverages control theoretic tools…

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying…

The detection of change points is a pivotal task in statistical analysis. In the quantum realm, it is a new primitive where one aims at identifying the point where a source that supposedly prepares a sequence of particles in identical…

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

A new class of stochastic processes called independent and periodically identically distributed (i.p.i.d.) processes is defined to capture periodically varying statistical behavior. A novel Bayesian theory is developed for detecting a…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…