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Don Fraser has given an interesting account of the agreements and disagreements between Bayesian posterior probabilities and confidence levels. In this comment I discuss some cases where the lack of such agreement is extreme. I then discuss…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-02-06 Larry Wasserman

We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-05-20 A. V. Lokhov , F. V. Tkachov

This paper concerns the construction of confidence intervals in standard seroprevalence surveys. In particular, we discuss methods for constructing confidence intervals for the proportion of individuals in a population infected with a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-10-05 Thomas J. DiCiccio , David M. Ritzwoller , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

For any class of one-sided $1-\alpha$ confidence intervals with a certain monotonicity ordering on the random confidence limit, the smallest interval, in the sense of the set inclusion for the difference of two proportions of two…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-11-19 Weizhen Wang

We investigate the frequentist coverage properties of credible sets resulting in from Gaussian process priors with squared exponential covariance kernel. First we show that by selecting the scaling hyper-parameter using the maximum marginal…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-04-03 Amine Hadji , Botond Szábo

We provide the asymptotic distribution of the major indexes used in the statistical literature to quantify disparate treatment in machine learning. We aim at promoting the use of confidence intervals when testing the so-called group…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-18 Philippe Besse , Eustasio del Barrio , Paula Gordaliza , Jean-Michel Loubes

Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…

高能物理 - 实验 · 物理学 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina

It is shown that the fiducial distribution in a group model, or more generally a quasigroup model, determines the optimal equivariant frequentist inference procedures. The proof does not rely on existence of invariant measures, and…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-04-09 Gunnar Taraldsen , Bo Henry Lindqvist

Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-14 Eliane C. Pinheiro , Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Francisco M. C. Medeiros

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-01 Paul Mineiro , Steven R. Howard

We propose randomized confidence intervals based on the Neyman-Pearson lemma, in order to make them more broadly applicable to distributions that do not satisfy regularity conditions. This is achieved by using the definition of fuzzy…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-28 Samuel Pawel , Alexander Ly , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Normalized mutual information is widely used as a similarity measure for evaluating the performance of clustering and classification algorithms. In this paper, we argue that results returned by the normalized mutual information are biased…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2025-12-23 Maximilian Jerdee , Alec Kirkley , M. E. J. Newman

We study the problem of estimating finite sample confidence intervals of the mean of a normal population under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider both the known and unknown variance cases and construct differentially…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2017-11-13 Vishesh Karwa , Salil Vadhan

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-11-17 Lizanne Raubenheimer

Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter or for the ratio of Poisson means are commonly desired in high energy physics (HEP) applications such as measuring a detection efficiency or branching ratio. Due to the discreteness of the data,…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2009-12-23 Robert D. Cousins , Kathryn E. Hymes , Jordan Tucker