相关论文: On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation

We present a class of models that, via a simple construction, enables exact, incremental, non-parametric, polynomial-time, Bayesian inference of conditional measures. The approach relies upon creating a sequence of covers on the…

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

We develop a framework for indirect discovery in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) based on Bayesian model selection over operator subsets. We argue that SMEFT should be understood as a structured space of competing…

We introduce a data-driven approach to analyze the performance of continuous optimization algorithms using generalization guarantees from statistical learning theory. We study classical and learned optimizers to solve families of parametric…

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous framework to encapsulate our knowledge and uncertainty regarding various physical quantities in a well-defined and self-contained manner. Utilising modern tools, such Bayesian models can be constructed…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Bayesian inference paradigms are regarded as powerful tools for solution of inverse problems. However, when applied to inverse problems in physical sciences, Bayesian formulations suffer from a number of inconsistencies that are often…

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response…

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…

While perception tasks such as visual object recognition and text understanding play an important role in human intelligence, the subsequent tasks that involve inference, reasoning and planning require an even higher level of intelligence.…

Given a pre-trained classifier and multiple human experts, we investigate the task of online classification where model predictions are provided for free but querying humans incurs a cost. In this practical but under-explored setting,…

The proposal and study of dependent prior processes has been a major research focus in the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this paper, we introduce a flexible class of dependent nonparametric priors, investigate their…

While Kolmogorov's probability axioms are widely recognized, it is less well known that in an often-overlooked 1930 note, Kolmogorov proposed an axiomatic framework for a unifying concept of the mean -- referred to as regular means. This…

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Pimentel et al. (2020) recently analysed probing from an information-theoretic perspective. They argue that probing should be seen as approximating a mutual information. This led to the rather unintuitive conclusion that representations…

Intelligent agents must be able to articulate its own uncertainty. In this work, we show that pre-trained sequence models are naturally capable of probabilistic reasoning over exchangeable data points -- forming informed beliefs and…

Bayesian inference is applied directly to the problem of unfolding. The outcome is a posterior probability density for the spectrum before smearing, defined in the multi-dimensional space of all possible spectra. Regularization consists in…

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…