相关论文: Wrong Priors
Many widely used models amount to an elaborate means of making up numbers--but once a number has been produced, it tends to be taken seriously and its source (the model) is rarely examined carefully. Many widely used models have little…
The underlying paradigm of big data-driven machine learning reflects the desire of deriving better conclusions from simply analyzing more data, without the necessity of looking at theory and models. Is having simply more data always…
Differentially private statistical estimation has seen a flurry of developments over the last several years. Study has been divided into two schools of thought, focusing on empirical statistics versus population statistics. We suggest that…
Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due…
In the past years we have witnessed the rise of new data sources for the potential production of official statistics, which, by and large, can be classified as survey, administrative, and digital data. Apart from the differences in their…
We consider a general class of empirical-type likelihoods and develop higher order asymptotics with a view to characterizing members thereof that allow the existence of possibly data-dependent probability matching priors ensuring…
In this paper, a simple explanation for the Goldbach Conjecture is given. We have shown that the probability of violating the conjecture not only for the prime numbers, but also for any subset of natural numbers whose distribution is…
A great deal of inference in statistics is based on making the approximation that a statistic is normally distributed. The error in doing so is generally $O(n^{-1/2})$ and can be very considerable when the distribution is heavily biased or…
The higher criticism of a family of tests starts with the individual uncorrected p-values of each test. It then requires a procedure for deciding whether the collection of p-values indicates the presence of a real effect and if possible…
Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…
Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble in which we are supposed to be typical?…
We formulate the Hauptvermutung of Causal Set Theory in two mathematically well-defined but different ways one of which turns out to be wrong and the other one turns out to be true. A further result is that the Hauptvermutung is true if we…
Blanket statements of equivalence between causal concepts and purely probabilistic concepts should be approached with care. In this short note, I examine a recent claim that counterfactual fairness is equivalent to demographic parity. The…
Comparative simulation studies are workhorse tools for benchmarking statistical methods. As with other empirical studies, the success of simulation studies hinges on the quality of their design, execution and reporting. If not conducted…
We consider the problem of estimating the class prior in an unlabeled dataset. Under the assumption that an additional labeled dataset is available, the class prior can be estimated by fitting a mixture of class-wise data distributions to…
Properties of weighted averages are studied for the general case that the individual measurements are subject to hidden correlations and have asymmetric statistical as well as systematic errors. Explicit expressions are derived for an…
Many measurements at collider experiments study physics candidates that are a subset of a collision event. The presence of multiple such candidates in a given event can cause raw biases which are large compared to typical statistical…
We study a model of opinion formation where the opinions in conflict are not equivalent. This is the case when the subject of the decision is to respect a norm or a law. In such scenarios, one of the possible behaviors is to abide by the…
Informally, "Information Inconsistency" is the property that has been observed in many Bayesian hypothesis testing and model selection procedures whereby the Bayesian conclusion does not become definitive when the data seems to become…
Starting with a novel definition of divided differences, this essay derives and discusses the basic properties of, and facts about, (univariate) divided differences.