相关论文: A wildland fire model with data assimilation

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Working with a two-stage ice sheet model, we explore how statistical data assimilation methods can be used to improve predictions of glacier melt and relatedly, sea level rise. We find that the EnKF improves model runs initialized using…

The current fuel moisture content (FMC) subsystems in WRF-SFIRE and its workflow system WRFx use a time-lag differential equation model with assimilation of data from FMC sensors on Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) by the extended…

Data assimilation algorithms are used to estimate the states of a dynamical system using partial and noisy observations. The ensemble Kalman filter has become a popular data assimilation scheme due to its simplicity and robustness for a…

Complex systems are often described with competing models. Such divergence of interpretation on the system may stem from model fidelity, mathematical simplicity, and more generally, our limited knowledge of the underlying processes.…

As wildfires become increasingly destructive and expensive to control, effective management of active wildfires requires accurate, real-time fire spread predictions. To enhance the forecasting accuracy of active fires, data assimilation…

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…

Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way…

In this study, two classes of methods including statistical and variational data assimilation algorithms will be described. In statistical methods, the model state is updated sequentially based on the previous estimate. Variational methods,…

We introduce a simple mathematical model for bushfires accounting for temperature diffusion in the presence of a combustion term which is activated above a given ignition state. The model also takes into consideration the effect of the…

Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…

Data likelihood of fire detection is the probability of the observed detection outcome given the state of the fire spread model. We derive fire detection likelihood of satellite data as a function of the fire arrival time on the model grid.…

Currently available satellite active fire detection products from the VIIRS and MODIS instruments on polar-orbiting satellites produce detection squares in arbitrary locations. There is no global fire/no fire map, no detection under cloud…

As wildfires are expected to become more frequent and severe, improved prediction models are vital to mitigating risk and allocating resources. With remote sensing data, valuable spatiotemporal statistical models can be created and used for…

Small unmanned aircraft can help firefighters combat wildfires by providing real-time surveillance of the growing fires. However, guiding the aircraft autonomously given only wildfire images is a challenging problem. This work models noisy…

Data assimilation algorithms estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations, where the successful performance of these algorithms hinges on costly parameter tuning and on employing an accurate model for the dynamics.…

Reduced-order models based on level-set methods are widely used tools to qualitatively capture and track the nonlinear dynamics of an interface. The aim of this paper is to develop a physics-informed, data-driven, statistically rigorous…

We present a methodology to change the state of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE, based on Rothermel's formula and the level set method, and with a fuel moisture model. The fire perimeter…

A cellular automaton (CA)-based modeling approach to simulate wildfire spread, emphasizing its strengths in capturing complex fire dynamics and its integration with geographic information systems (GIS). The model introduces an enhanced…

Ensemble Kalman methods were initially developed to solve nonlinear data assimilation problems in oceanography, but are now popular in applications far beyond their original use cases. Of particular interest is climate model calibration. As…