相关论文: Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
One peculiar feature of the solar cycle which is yet to be understood properly is the frequent occurrence of double peaks (also known as the Gnevyshev peaks). Not only the double peaks but also multiple peaks and spikes are often observed…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
Theoretical models for the solar dynamo range from simple low-dimensional ``toy models'' to complex 3D-MHD simulations. Here we mainly discuss appproaches that are motivated and guided by solar (and stellar) observations. We give a brief…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
We have developed a hybrid model of the solar dynamo on the lines of the Babcock-Leighton idea that the poloidal field is generated at the surface of the Sun from the decay of active regions. In this model magnetic buoyancy is handled with…
Context. The solar dynamo consists of a process that converts poloidal field to toroidal field followed by a process which creates new poloidal field from the toroidal field. Aims. Our aim is to observe the poloidal and toroidal fields…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
The magnetic activity of the Sun, as manifested in the sunspot cycle, originates deep within its convection zone through a dynamo mechanism which involves non-trivial interactions between the plasma and magnetic field in the solar interior.…
We develop a model of the solar dynamo in which, on the one hand, we follow the Babcock-Leighton approach to include surface processes like the production of poloidal field from the decay of active regions, and, on the other hand, we…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior -- which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique…
We point out the difficulties in carrying out direct numerical simulation of the solar dynamo problem and argue that kinematic mean-field models are our best theoretical tools at present for explaining various aspects of the solar cycle in…
We develop a three-dimensional kinematic self-sustaining model of the solar dynamo in which the poloidal field generation is from tilted bipolar sunspot pairs placed on the solar surface above regions of strong toroidal field by using the…
Dynamo models relying on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are successful in reproducing most of the solar magnetic field dynamical characteristics. However, considering that such models operate only above a lower magnetic field threshold,…
It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…