相关论文: On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Mod…
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…
Solar magnetic fields comprise an 11-year activity cycle, represented by the number of sunspots. The maintenance of such a solar magnetic field can be attributed to fluid motion in the convection zone, i.e. a dynamo. This study conducts the…
In this work we use a low order dynamo model and study under which conditions can it reproduce solar grand minima. We begin by building the phase space of a proxy for the toroidal component of the solar magnetic field and we develop a…
Main problems of magnetic storm prediction and causes of low efficiency of medium-term prognosis are discussed. It is supposed, that possible way of their solving is searching for poor-investigated features of solar wind (for instance,…
We report a data-parsimonious machine learning model for short-term forecasting of solar irradiance. The model inputs include sky camera images that are reduced to scalar features to meet data transmission constraints. The output irradiance…
The intensity and energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by the 11-year solar cycle, a phenomenon known as solar modulation. Understanding this effect and its underlying physical mechanisms…
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…
Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock-Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Yeates et al. (2008) argue that the…
The solar activity cycle is a manifestation of the hydromagnetic dynamo working inside our star. The detection of activity cycles in solar-like stars and the study of their properties allow us to put the solar dynamo in perspective,…
The so-called solar cycle is generally characterized by the quasi-periodic oscillatory evolution of the photospheric spots number. This quasi-periodic pattern has always been an intriguing question. Several physical models were proposed to…
Context: The Sun is by far a privileged target for testing stellar models with unique precision. A recent concern appeared with the progress in the solar surface abundances derivation that has led to a decrease of the solar metallicity.…
After decades of effort, the solar activity cycle is exceptionally well characterized but it remains poorly understood. Pioneering work at the Mount Wilson Observatory demonstrated that other sun-like stars also show regular activity…
The Sun's variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the "Hale Cycle'') as they march from their origin at $\sim$55 degrees latitude to the equator,…
The Sun's magnetic dynamo cycle features a distinct pattern: a propagating region of sunspot emergence appears around 30 degrees latitude and vanishes near the equator every 11 years. Moreover, longitudinal flows called "torsional…
The origin of the quiet Sun magnetism is under debate. Investigating the solar cycle variation observationally in more detail can give us clues about how to resolve the controversies. We investigate the solar cycle variation of the most…
The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an energy-, time-, and particle-dependent phenomenon which arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling,…
The calling card of solar magnetism is the sunspot cycle, during which sunspots regularly reverse their polarity sense every 11 years. However, a number of more complicated time-dependent behaviors have also been identified. In particular,…
Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…
This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…
After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its…