相关论文: On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Mod…

Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…

The most widely accepted model of the solar cycle is the flux transport dynamo model. This model evolved out of the traditional $\alpha \Omega$ dynamo model which was first developed at a time when the existence of the Sun's meridional…

Understanding the irregular variation of the solar cycle is crucial due to its significant impact on global climates and the heliosphere. Since the polar magnetic field determines the amplitude of the next solar cycle, variations in the…

Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…

The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on…

Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…

Recent findings of helioseismology as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun have indicated that in each solar hemisphere the meridional circulation forms the two cells along the in the convection…

The sunspot number varies roughly periodically with time. However the individual cycle durations and the amplitudes are found to vary in an irregular manner. It is observed that the stronger cycles are having shorter rise times and vice…

The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In…

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…

A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…

It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…

Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle's shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the…

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

Mean-field dynamo theory, describing the evolution of large-scale magnetic fields, has been the mainstay of theoretical interpretation of magnetism in astrophysical objects such as the Sun for several decades. More recently,…

Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…

We compare spectra of the zonal harmonics of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun using observation results and solar dynamo models. The main solar activity cycle as recorded in these tracers is a much more complicated phenomenon than…

Employing the standard solar interior model as input we construct a dynamically-consistent nonlinear dynamo model that takes into account the detailed description of the \Lambda- effect, turbulent pumping, magnetic helicity balance, and…

The mainstream dynamo models predict that the sunspot cycle is non-stationary and stochastic. The official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts only the ongoing sunspot cycle because any forecast beyond one cycle is considered impossible.…