相关论文: Financial time-series analysis: A brief overview

Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…

We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are…

Metastability is a phenomenon observed in stochastic systems which stay in a false-equilibrium within a region of its state space until the occurrence of a sequence of rare events that leads to an abrupt transition to a different region.…

In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian…

Forecasts of various processes have always been a sophisticated problem for statistics and data science. Over the past decades the solution procedures were updated by deep learning and kernel methods. According to many specialists, these…

In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of…

Prediction problems in finance go beyond estimating the unknown parameters of a model (e.g. of expected returns). This is because such a model would have to include parameters governing the market participants' propensity to change their…

The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several…

The multivariate time series generated from merchant transaction history can provide critical insights for payment processing companies. The capability of predicting merchants' future is crucial for fraud detection and recommendation…

A representative investor generates realistic and complex security price paths by following this trading strategy: if, a few ticks ago, the market asset had two consecutive upticks or two consecutive downticks, then sell, and otherwise buy.…

We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…

Precise financial series predicting has long been a difficult problem because of unstableness and many noises within the series. Although Traditional time series models like ARIMA and GARCH have been researched and proved to be effective in…

In economics and many other forecasting domains, the real world problems are too complex for a single model that assumes a specific data generation process. The forecasting performance of different methods changes depending on the nature of…

Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely…

The art of systematic financial trading evolved with an array of approaches, ranging from simple strategies to complex algorithms all relying, primary, on aspects of time-series analysis. Recently, after visiting the trading floor of a…

In this paper, we present a novel approach to the generation of virtual scenarios of multivariate financial data of arbitrary length and composition of assets. With this approach, decades of realistic time-synchronized data can be simulated…

Physicists have recently begun doing research in finance, and even though this movement is less than five years old, interesting and useful contributions have already emerged. This article reviews these developments in four areas, including…

Here we present a novel approach to statistical analysis of financial time series. The approach is based on $n$-grams frequency dictionaries derived from the quantized market data. Such dictionaries are studied by evaluating their…

Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive…

In this brief review, we critically examine the recent work done on correlation-based networks in financial systems. The structure of empirical correlation matrices constructed from the financial market data changes as the individual stock…