经济学
We study $n$-dimensional contests between two players with heterogeneous effort costs, where each dimension (battle) is modeled as a Tullock contest. Prize-allocation rules are identity-independent, budget-balanced, and weakly increasing in…
Price controls kill the incentive for arbitrage. We prove a Chaos Theorem: under a binding price ceiling, suppliers are indifferent across destinations, so arbitrarily small cost differences can determine the entire allocation. The economy…
Medical "Crisis Standards of Care" call for a utilitarian allocation of scarce resources in emergencies, while favoring the worst-off under normal conditions. Inspired by such triage rules, we introduce social welfare functions whose…
Large language models (LLMs) are a type of machine learning tool that economists have started to apply in their empirical research. One such application is macroeconomic forecasting with backtesting of LLMs, even though they are trained on…
We investigate preference domains under which every unanimous and locally strategy-proof social choice function (scf) satisfies dictatorship. We identify a condition on domains called connected with distinct neighbours which is necessary…
How does the endogenous selection of information shape belief formation? In observational settings, individuals only consume information they choose, making it impossible to observe how they would respond to information they actively avoid.…
A sender communicates private information about a hidden state to a receiver who seeks to match his action to that state. The sender strives to appear informed at the receiver's expense. I characterize informative equilibria under a broad…
We study the properties of the classical \emph{projection} method to conduct simultaneous inference about the coefficients of the structural impulse-response function and their identified set in Structural Vector Autoregressions. We show…
Network diffusion models are used to study disease transmission, information spread, technology adoption, and other socio-economic processes. We show that estimates of these diffusions are highly non-robust to mismeasurement. First, even…
Data from national accounts show no effect of change in net saving or consumption, in ratio to market-value capital, on change in growth rate of market-value capital (capital acceleration). Thus it appears that capital growth and…
The normality assumption for random errors is fundamental in the analysis of variance (ANOVA) models. However, it is rarely subjected to formal testing in practice, and theoretically justified procedures are largely unavailable, especially…
In European day-ahead electricity markets, carbon allowance costs passed through by marginal fossil plants raise consumer expenditure and generate inframarginal rents for non-emitting generators. We propose a settlement modification: when…
This article studies randomization inference for treatment effects in randomized controlled trials with attrition, where outcomes are observed for only a subset of units. We assume monotonicity in reporting behavior as in…
A growing literature documents how religious institutions shape behavior through social influence, but less is known about what happens when religious movements gain political power and use the tools of government to advance their agenda.…
Personalized recommendation systems shape much of user choice online, yet their targeted nature makes separating out the value of recommendation and the underlying goods challenging. We build a discrete choice model that embeds…
In many search markets, advance interim contracts include an explicit right to renege, granting one party the option to switch to more attractive matches that emerge later in the search process. This paper studies the design and welfare…
Participants in online experiments often enroll over time, which can compromise sample representativeness due to temporal shifts in covariates. This issue is particularly critical in A/B tests, online controlled experiments extensively used…
This paper studies the use of highly stratified designs for the efficient estimation of a large class of treatment effect parameters that arise in the analysis of experiments. By a "highly stratified" design, we mean experiments in which…
How do incentive levels affect strategic behaviour? We address this with an experiment that separately identifies own- and opponent-incentive effects in two dominance-solvable games that differ in strategic complexity. Higher own incentives…
I develop algorithms to facilitate Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that are set-identified with sign and zero restrictions by showing that the system of restrictions is equivalent to a system of sign restrictions in…