统计方法学
We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…
We often collect data from multiple sites (e.g., hospitals) that share common structure but also exhibit heterogeneity. This paper aims to learn robust sequential decision-making policies from such offline, multi-site datasets. To model…
Motivated by the study of how daily temperature affects soybean yield, this article proposes a simultaneous functional quantile regression (FQR) model featuring a locally sparse bivariate slope function indexed by both quantile and time and…
The doubly-robust (DR) estimator is popular for evaluating causal effects in observational studies and is often perceived as more desirable than inverse probability weighting (IPW) or outcome modeling alone because it provides extra…
Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…
Ai et al. (2021) studied the estimation of a general dose-response function (GDRF) of a continuous treatment that includes the average dose-response function, the quantile dose-response function, and other expectiles of the dose-response…
Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…
We introduce a non-Markovian generalization of the classical M/M/1 queue by incorporating extended nonlocal time dynamics into Kolmogorov forward equations. We obtain the model by replacing the standard time derivative with an extended…
This paper studies multivariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial portfolios with a focus on modeling dependence structures through Archimedean copulas. Using the generator representation of Archimedean copulas, we derive explicit…
Coverage analysis is essential for validating the safety of autonomous driving systems, yet existing approaches typically assess coverage factors individually or in limited combinations, struggling to capture the complex interactions…
We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…
Retrospective cohorts can be extracted from Electronic Health Records (EHR) to study prevalence, time until disease or event occurrence and cure proportion in real world scenarios. However, EHR are collected for patient care rather than…
Survival analysis deals with modeling the time until an event occurs, and accurate probability estimates are crucial for decision-making, particularly in the competing-risks setting where multiple events are possible. While recent work has…
Coarsened exact matching (CEM) is often promoted as a superior alternative to propensity score matching (PSM) for addressing imbalance, model dependence, bias, and efficiency. However, this recommendation remains uncertain. First, CEM is…
It is recognised that treatment-related clustering should be allowed for in the sample size and analyses of individually-randomised parallel-group trials that evaluate therapist-delivered interventions such as psychotherapy. Here,…
Emerging single-cell technologies that integrate CRISPR-based genetic perturbations with single-cell RNA sequencing, such as Perturb-seq, have substantially advanced our understanding of gene regulation and causal influence of genes. While…
Subgroup selection in clinical trials is essential for identifying patient groups that react differently to a treatment, thereby enabling personalised medicine. In particular, subgroup selection can identify patient groups that respond…
Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are…
We address the challenge of forecasting counterfactual outcomes in a panel data with missing entries and temporally dependent latent factors -- a common scenario in causal inference, where estimating unobserved potential outcomes ahead of…
Hypergraphs are useful mathematical representations of overlapping and nested subsets of interacting units, including groups of genes or brain regions, economic cartels, political or military coalitions, and groups of products that are…