统计计算

Estimating the probabilities of rare failure events is a key challenge in the reliability analysis of physical systems. Subset simulation (SS) is a very popular adaptive Monte Carlo method for this problem. In SS, the small failure…

We introduce a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methodology based on a randomized selection of integration times, referred to as eHMC, where "e" stands for empirical. The approach relies on an offline calibration phase that leverages…

The moveEZ (pronounced move easy) R package provides tools for constructing animated PCA biplots that reveal how multivariate structure evolves across the ordered levels of a categorical variable. Built as an extension to the biplotEZ…

This note provides a lightweight tutorial on using Eigen, a C++ template library for linear algebra, to implement statistical and machine learning algorithms. The emphasis is practical rather than methodological: we show how common matrix…

Multiproposal MCMC (MP-MCMC) algorithms use clouds of proposals to efficiently traverse state spaces and overcome complex target geometries. While MCMC methods are embarrassingly parallel by nature, the non-trivial forms of parallelism…

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference,…

Scientific computer simulations cannot represent all scales in realistic applications. To bridge this model-data gap, parameters are injected into models and constrained with noisy data using Bayesian inversion. To reduce the number of…

State-space models (SSMs) are a broad class of probabilistic models for dynamical systems with many applications in engineering and science. Bayesian filtering is analytically tractable only in the linear-Gaussian setting, where the Kalman…

Elliptical slice sampling is a widely used gradient-free Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is tuning-free and capable of adapting to local characteristics of the target distribution. However, its primary limitation is that sampling…

This paper proposes a novel method to estimate the rate parameter of the Poisson distribution. The proposed method employs the Cramer-von Mises type optimization which has been commonly used in estimating parameters of continuous…

This paper focuses on the estimation of partially observed branching processes. First, the estimators from a frequentist perspective proposed in the literature are reviewed. The main objective of this paper is to present computational tools…

In this article, we present $\textbf{ldmppr}$, an R package for estimating, evaluating, simulating from, and visualizing location-dependent marked spatial point processes. To date, it has commonly been assumed that the marks associated with…

Classical multivariate statistical methods such as covariance estimation and principal component analysis are well understood mathematically, yet their application at extreme data scales remains challenging. When the number of observations…

Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) offers many advantages such as principled uncertainty quantification, small-sample regularisation, and flexible model specification. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods on which…

Real-world measurements often comprise a dominant signal contaminated by a noisy background. Robustly estimating the dominant signal in practice has been a fundamental statistical problem. Classically, mixture models have been used to…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible, probabilistic, nonparametric models widely used in fields such as spatial statistics and machine learning. A drawback of Gaussian processes is their computational cost, with $O(N^3)$ time and $O(N^2)$…

Coding and computation remain major bottlenecks in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) workflows, especially as modern sampling algorithms have become increasingly complex and existing probabilistic programming systems remain limited in model…

Kernel quadrature is widely used to approximate integrals of smooth functions, with worst-case error typically decaying at the minimax rate $n^{-\alpha/d}$ for smoothness $\alpha$ in dimension $d$. Existing rate-optimal methods often depend…

Spatially referenced datasets have become increasingly prevalent across many fields, largely driven by advances in data collection methods such as satellite remote sensing. In many applications, predictions at unobserved locations are…

Temporal point processes offer a powerful framework for sampling from discrete distributions, yet they remain underutilized in existing literature. We show how to construct, for any target multivariate count distribution with…