应用统计
The football transfer market is a complex, dynamic environment in which clubs compete to acquire players who strengthen their squads. While several frameworks estimate a player's worth, a comprehensive approach that captures both squad…
Climate policy modelling is a key tool for assessing mitigation strategies in complex systems, where uncertainty is inherent and unavoidable. We present a general methodology for extensive uncertainty analysis in this field. While other…
Camera traps have become a core tool in ecological research, enabling large-scale, noninvasive monitoring of wildlife populations and behavior. By automatically recording animals as they pass within view, these devices generate massive…
Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has made machine-generated text increasingly difficult to distinguish from human-written text. While recent studies explore leveraging internal representations of language models to…
Marketplace platforms routinely evaluate pricing and allocation policies using logged observational data, yet strong offline performance does not imply that a policy is safe to deploy. In real-time bidding (RTB) marketplaces, reserve-price…
Single-arm trials are an important study design for evaluating drug efficacy and safety without enrolling patients into a control arm. Although they do not provide the gold-standard evidence of randomized controlled trials, they are…
Modeling dependencies between random variables independently from their marginals is fundamental in applications ranging from finance to (structural) biology. In this work, we undertake this problem using circula to model data living on the…
Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used in manufacturing to support supplier qualification, pilot-build release, and production approval. In practice, approval decisions are often based on deterministic threshold rules…
This paper introduces an infinite-dimensional Bayesian framework for acoustic seabed tomography, leveraging wave scattering to simultaneously estimate the seabed and its roughness. Tomography is considered an ill-posed problem where…
High-frequency mortality data have attracted growing attention, but their use has largely been confined to specific applications rather than general modelling and forecasting. Such data pose new challenges to traditional mortality models…
Monitoring aboveground biomass (AGB) and its density (AGBD) at high resolution is essential for carbon accounting and ecosystem management. While NASA's spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) LiDAR mission provides…
Efficient irrigation management is crucial to agriculture, forestry and horticulture, especially under climate change. Developments in novel sensors and Internet of Things technology provide an opportunity to carry out real-time monitoring…
Algorithmic systems now set prices across auto insurance, credit, and lending markets, and regulators increasingly require firms to demonstrate that these systems do not discriminate against protected groups. The standard audit regresses…
This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the statistical precision of measurement methods from interlaboratory studies where the outcome is a dose-response relationship summarized by a regression line. For such measurement methods,…
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections and finance, markets have been effective at aggregating…
Malaria, childhood acute respiratory infection, and child undernutrition together account for over two million deaths annually in children under five, with the burden concentrated in low and middle-income countries where climate variability…
Aggressive behavior, including aggression towards others and self-injury, occurs in up to 80% of children and adolescents with autism, making it a leading cause of behavioral health referrals and a major driver of healthcare costs.…
We propose a method for summarizing multiple solutions to SEIR-type compartmental models on a functional space by computing a constrained power Fr\'echet mean with functional registration to obtain consensus epidemic trajectories with…