风险管理
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and who can purchase a reversible life annuity. The surrender charge of a life annuity is a proportion of its…
We provide a dual representation of quasiconvex maps between two lattices of random variables in terms of conditional expectations. This generalizes the dual representation of quasiconvex real valued functions and the dual representation of…
In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization.…
The economic equities maximization criterion (MFPE) leads to the choice of financial portfolio, which maximizes the ratio of the expected value of the insurance company on the capital. This criterion is presented in the framework of a…
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes a…
We find a novel correlation structure in the residual noise of stock market returns that is remarkably linked to the composition and stability of the top few significant factors driving the returns, and moreover indicates that the noise…
We propose an approach to the aggregation of risks which is based on estimation of simple quantities (such as covariances) associated to a vector of dependent random variables, and which avoids the use of parametric families of copulae. Our…
In this paper we introduce a novel approach to risk estimation based on nonlinear factor models - the "StressVaR" (SVaR). Developed to evaluate the risk of hedge funds, the SVaR appears to be applicable to a wide range of investments. Its…
In this paper, we present the principal components of an economic scenario generator (ESG), both for the theoretical design and for practical implementation. The choice of these components should be linked to the ultimate vocation of the…
We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment…
The aim of this research is to give a simple framework to evaluate/quantize the "transparency" of a firm. We assume that the process of the firm value is only observable once in a while but is strongly correlated with the stock price which…
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio…
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of "2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization" by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
High precision analytical approximation is proposed for variance-covariance based risk allocation in a portfolio of risky assets. A general case of a single-period multi-factor Merton-type model with stochastic recovery is considered. The…
We provide a new dynamic approach to scenario generation for the purposes of risk management in the banking industry. We connect ideas from conventional techniques -- like historical and Monte Carlo simulation -- and we come up with a…
In this paper we attempt to introduce an econophysics approach to evaluate some aspects of the risks in financial markets. For this purpose, the thermodynamical methods and statistical physics results about entropy and equilibrium states in…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the…
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…