计量经济学

Empirical regression discontinuity (RD) studies often include covariates in their specifications to increase the precision of their estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel class of estimators that use such covariate information more…

This paper integrates deep neural networks (DNNs) into structural economic models to increase flexibility and capture rich heterogeneity while preserving interpretability. Economic structure and machine learning are complements in empirical…

This study investigates computationally efficient inner-loop algorithms for estimating static/dynamic BLP models. It provides the following ideas for reducing the number of inner-loop iterations: (1). Add a term relating to the outside…

Randomized experiments with treatment and control groups are an important tool to measure the impacts of interventions. However, in experimental settings with one-sided noncompliance extant empirical approaches may not produce the estimands…

Machine learning models are widely recognized for their strong performance in forecasting. To keep that performance in streaming data settings, they have to be monitored and frequently re-trained. This can be done with machine learning…

This paper develops a general framework for dynamic models in which individuals simultaneously make both discrete and continuous choices. The framework incorporates a wide range of unobserved heterogeneity. I show that such models are…

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents ("multilayer network"), which are…

In the presence of sufficiently weak overlap, it is known that no regular root-n-consistent estimators exist and standard estimators may fail to be asymptotically normal. This paper shows that a thresholded version of the standard doubly…

This paper considers a model with general regressors and unobservable factors. An estimator based on iterated principal components is proposed, which is shown to be not only asymptotically normal and oracle efficient, but under certain…

This paper establishes bounds on the performance of empirical risk minimization for large-dimensional linear regression. We generalize existing results by allowing the data to be dependent and heavy-tailed. The analysis covers both the…

Growth-at-Risk is vital for empirical macroeconomics but is often suspect to quantile crossing due to data limitations. While existing literature addresses this through post-processing of the fitted quantiles, these methods do not correct…

We propose flexible Gaussian representations for conditional cumulative distribution functions and give a concave likelihood criterion for their estimation. Optimal representations satisfy the monotonicity property of conditional cumulative…

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to…

This paper introduces a new fixed effects estimator for linear panel data models with clustered time patterns of unobserved heterogeneity. The method avoids non-convex and combinatorial optimization by combining a preliminary consistent…

We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the current practice of K-fold and Common Task Framework validation in machine learning (ML) research on prediction. SDT…

Accurate network data are essential in fields such as economics, sociology, and computer science. Aggregated Relational Data (ARD) provides a way to capture network structures using partial data. This article compares two main frameworks…

The R package bsvars provides a wide range of tools for empirical macroeconomic and financial analyses using Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressions. It uses frontier econometric techniques and C++ code to ensure fast and efficient…

Diagnostic tests for regression discontinuity design face a size-control problem. We document a massive over-rejection of the diagnostic restriction among empirical studies in the top five economics journals. At least one diagnostic test…

This paper extends validity of the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test developed by Moreira (2003) to instrumental variable regression models with unknown error variance and many weak instruments. In this setting, we argue that the…