计量经济学
Discrete Choice Modelling serves as a robust framework for modelling human choice behaviour across various disciplines. Building a choice model is a semi structured research process that involves a combination of a priori assumptions,…
Network experiments are powerful tools for studying spillover effects, which avoid endogeneity by randomly assigning treatments to units over networks. However, it is non-trivial to analyze network experiments properly without imposing…
This paper develops a flexible approach to predict the price effects of horizontal mergers using ML/AI methods. While standard merger simulation techniques rely on restrictive assumptions about firm conduct, we propose a data-driven…
The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity -- especially exclusion restrictions -- is largely rhetorical. We…
deaR is a recently developed R package for data envelopment analysis (DEA) that implements a large number of conventional and fuzzy models, along with super-efficiency models, cross-efficiency analysis, Malmquist index, bootstrapping, and…
OC-DeepIV is a neural network model designed for estimating causal effects. It characterizes heterogeneity by adding interaction features and reduces redundancy through orthogonal constraints. The model includes two feature extractors, one…
Choice modellers routinely acknowledge the risk of convergence to inferior local optima when using structures other than a simple linear-in-parameters logit model. At the same time, there is no consensus on appropriate mechanisms for…
Triple difference designs have become increasingly popular in empirical economics. The advantage of a triple difference design is that, within a treatment group, it allows for another subgroup of the population -- potentially less impacted…
We extend the standard VAR to jointly model the dynamics of binary, censored and continuous variables, and develop an efficient estimation approach that scales well to high-dimensional settings. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we…
We hypothesize that portfolio sorts based on the V/P ratio generate excess returns and consist of companies that are undervalued for prolonged periods. Results, for the US market show that high V/P portfolios outperform low V/P portfolios…
This paper explores strategic network formation under incomplete information using data from a single large network. We allow the utility function to be nonseparable in an individual's link choices to capture the spillover effects from…
This paper provides comprehensive simulation results on the finite sample properties of the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test by Diebold and Mariano (1995) and the model confidence set (MCS) testing procedure by Hansen et al. (2011) applied to the…
This paper investigates the use of synthetic control methods for causal inference in macroeconomic settings when dealing with possibly nonstationary data. While the synthetic control approach has gained popularity for estimating…
In industry, online randomized controlled experiment (a.k.a. A/B experiment) is a standard approach to measure the impact of a causal change. These experiments have small treatment effect to reduce the potential blast radius. As a result,…
A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…
This paper proposes a Conditional Method Confidence Set (CMCS) which allows to select the best subset of forecasting methods with equal predictive ability conditional on a specific economic regime. The test resembles the Model Confidence…
We study the Functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of…
In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time could not systematically replicate experimental…
This paper considers the estimation of treatment effects in randomized experiments with complex experimental designs, including cases with interference between units. We develop a design-based estimation theory for arbitrary experimental…
The proportional odds cumulative logit model (POCLM) is a standard regression model for an ordinal response. Ordinality of predictors can be incorporated by monotonicity constraints for the corresponding parameters. It is shown that…