计量经济学
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
We study estimation of and inference for the average causal effect of treating every member of a population, as opposed to none, using an experiment that treats only some. Considering settings where spillovers can occur between any pair of…
This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i) exact probability limits for conventional two-way fixed…
This paper discusses three key themes in forecasting for monetary policy highlighted in the Bernanke (2024) review: the challenges in economic forecasting, the conditional nature of central bank forecasts, and the importance of forecast…
This paper provides a formal econometric framework behind the newly developed difference-in-discontinuities design (DiDC). Despite its increasing use in applied research, there are currently limited studies of its properties. We formalize…
In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous It\^{o} semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to…
For subvector inference in the linear instrumental variables model under homoskedasticity but allowing for weak instruments, Guggenberger, Kleibergen, and Mavroeidis (2019) (GKM) propose a conditional subvector Anderson and Rubin (1949)…
We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…
We are delighted to respond to the excellent surveys by Cattaneo et al. (2026) and Hirano (2026). Our discussion will attempt two things: first, we show how statistical decision theory can be applied to situations with partial…
Standard Distributional Synthetic Controls (DSC) estimate counterfactual distributions by minimizing the Euclidean $L_2$ distance between quantile functions. We demonstrate that this geometric reliance renders estimators fragile: they lack…
This paper proposes an empirical, replicable, and interpretable framework to decompose, in basis points (bps), daily changes in Brazil's 5-year DI futures rate (DI5Y). The approach combines three building blocks: (i) macroeconomic and…
This paper examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and conflict in the ten largest aid-receiving African countries between 2009 and 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Principal Component Analysis, and Ridge…
We present simple to implement Wald-type statistics that deliver a general nonparametric inference theory for linear restrictions on varying coefficients in a range of regression models allowing for cross-sectional or spatial dependence. We…
In discrete choice panel data, estimation of average effects is crucial for quantifying the effect of covariates, and for policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis. However, in short panels with individual-specific effects, challenges…
This paper introduces unit-specific heterogeneity in panel data threshold regression. We develop the asymptotic theory for models with heterogeneous thresholds, heterogeneous slope coefficients, and interactive fixed effects. The estimation…
We introduce a generic class of dynamic nonlinear heterogeneous parameter models that incorporate individual and time fixed effects in both the intercept and slope. These models are subject to the incidental parameter problem, in that the…
In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…
In this paper, we propose a nonparametric way to test the hypothesis that time-variation in intraday volatility is caused solely by a deterministic and recurrent diurnal pattern. We assume that noisy high-frequency data from a discretely…
We propose Mixed-Panels-Transformer Encoder (MPTE), a novel framework for estimating factor models in panel datasets with mixed frequencies and nonlinear signals. Traditional factor models rely on linear signal extraction and require…
We study kernel-based estimation of nonparametric time-varying parameters (TVPs) in linear models. Our contributions are threefold. First, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the kernel-based estimator for a broad class of…