计量经济学
In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…
This paper presents an out-of-sample prediction comparison between major machine learning models and the structural econometric model. Over the past decade, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool in many prediction…
Behavioral theories posit that investor sentiment exhibits predictive power for stock returns, whereas there is little study have investigated the relationship between the time horizon of the predictive effect of investor sentiment and the…
Given a sample of bids from independent auctions, this paper examines the question of inference on auction fundamentals (e.g. valuation distributions, welfare measures) under weak assumptions on information structure. The question is…
We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value…
During the last decades, public policies become a central pillar in supporting and stabilising agricultural sector. In 1962, EU policy-makers developed the so-called Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to ensure competitiveness and a common…
Understanding the effectiveness of alternative approaches to water conservation is crucially important for ensuring the security and reliability of water services for urban residents. We analyze data from one of the longest-running "cash…
This paper extends endogenous economic growth models to incorporate knowledge externality. We explores whether spatial knowledge spillovers among regions exist, whether spatial knowledge spillovers promote regional innovative activities,…
We perform econometric tests on a modified Goodwin model where the capital accumulation rate is constant but not necessarily equal to one as in the original model (Goodwin, 1967). In addition to this modification, we find that addressing…
We study three pricing mechanisms' performance and their effects on the participants in the data industry from the data supply chain perspective. A win-win pricing strategy for the players in the data supply chain is proposed. We obtain…
We revisit the results of Harvie (2000) and show how correcting for a reporting mistake in some of the estimated parameter values leads to significantly different conclusions, including realistic parameter values for the Philips curve and…
In this paper, we propose deep learning techniques for econometrics, specifically for causal inference and for estimating individual as well as average treatment effects. The contribution of this paper is twofold: 1. For generalized…
Many macroeconomic policy questions may be assessed in a case study framework, where the time series of a treated unit is compared to a counterfactual constructed from a large pool of control units. I provide a general framework for this…
A conditional expectation function (CEF) can at best be partially identified when the conditioning variable is interval censored. When the number of bins is small, existing methods often yield minimally informative bounds. We propose three…
This paper describes a numerical method to solve for mean product qualities which equates the real market share to the market share predicted by a discrete choice model. The method covers a general class of discrete choice model, including…
People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from…
The rational choice theory is based on this idea that people rationally pursue goals for increasing their personal interests. In most conditions, the behavior of an actor is not independent of the person and others' behavior. Here, we…
Algorithmic collusion is an emerging concept in current artificial intelligence age. Whether algorithmic collusion is a creditable threat remains as an argument. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which can extort its human rival to…
Energy policy in Europe has been driven by the three goals of security of supply, economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability, referred to as the energy trilemma. Although there are clear conflicts within the trilemma, member…
This note proves that the representation of the Allen elasticity of substitution obtained by Uzawa for linear homogeneous functions holds true for nonhomogeneous functions. It is shown that the criticism of the Allen-Uzawa elasticity of…