English

Guessing Strategies for Shuffling Machines

Probability 2025-07-15 v1 Combinatorics

Abstract

We investigate a one-time single shelf shuffle by establishing the position matrix explicitly. In some cases, we prove a no-feedback optimal guessing strategy. A general no-feedback strategy is conjectured, and asymptotics for the expected reward are given. For the complete-feedback case, we give a guessing strategy, prove that it is optimal and unique, and find the expected reward. Our results prove a conjecture of Diaconis, Fulman, and Holmes in a special case.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.10294,
  title  = {Guessing Strategies for Shuffling Machines},
  author = {Alexander Clay},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.10294},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:59:55.123Z