Exponential Convex Calibration Dimension for the Multi-Label Jaccard Measure

The per-instance Jaccard score, or intersection over union (IoU), is standard in multi-label classification and binary segmentation. With $s$ labels, its loss matrix has $2^s$ outcomes and reports. Under the convention $\mathrm{Jac}(\varnothing,\varnothing)=1$, we prove that the Jaccard score, shifted-loss, and ordinary loss matrices are nonsingular and that the loss columns have affine dimension $2^s-1$. The proof combines a finite MinHash Gram representation with Boolean M\"obius inversion. For exact calibration, we prove $2^{s-1} \leq \mathrm{CCdim}(L^{\mathrm{Jac}}) \leq 2^s-1$. The lower bound uses a factorially weighted distribution with $2^{s-1}+1$ supported outcomes and Bayes-optimal reports. Consequently, every exactly calibrated convex surrogate requires exponentially many prediction coordinates. We also give two polynomial-dimensional approximation guarantees with explicit regret transfers. A new $F_1$-to-Jaccard transfer turns an existing $(s^2+1)$-dimensional $F_1$ surrogate into a polynomial-time rule with asymptotic Jaccard regret at most $3-2\sqrt{2}$. For any $\alpha>0$ and $0<\rho<1$, a MinHash square-loss surrogate attains Jaccard-regret floor $\alpha$ uniformly over arbitrary conditional label distributions. With probability at least $1-\rho$, the direct construction has dimension $O((s^2+s\log(1/\rho))/\alpha^2)$, while a signed variant has dimension $O((s+\log(1/\rho))/\alpha^2)$. Thus zero-regret calibration requires exponential dimension, whereas every fixed additive regret tolerance admits polynomial prediction dimension.