Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study
摘要
We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario.
关键词
引用
@article{arxiv.physics/0610115,
title = {Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study},
author = {J. Hansen and M. Sato and R. Ruedy and P. Kharecha and A. Lacis and R. Miller and L. Nazarenko and K. Lo and G. A. Schmidt and G. Russell and I. Aleinov and S. Bauer and E. Baum and B. Cairns and V. Canuto and M. Chandler and Y. Cheng and A. Cohen and A. Del Genio and G. Faluvegi and E. Fleming and A. Friend and T. Hall and C. Jackman and J. Jonas and M. Kelley and N. Y. Kiang and D. Koch and G. Labow and J. Lerner and S. Menon and T. Novakov and V. Oinas and Ja. Perlwitz and Ju. Perlwitz and D. Rind and A. Romanou and R. Schmunk and D. Shindell and P. Stone and S. Sun and D. Streets and N. Tausnev and D. Thresher and N. Unger and M. Yao and S. Zhang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0610115},
year = {2020}
}
备注
21 pages; 10 figures; to be submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics