Related papers: Time Evolution of Non-Lethal Infectious Diseases: …
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
In this work we introduce a differential equation model with time-delay that describes the three-stage dynamics and the two time scales observed in HIV infection. Assuming that the virus has high mutation and rapid reproduction rates that…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
We propose a model of the immunity to a cyclical epidemic disease taking account not only of seasonal boosts during the infectious season, but also of residual immunity remaining from one season to the next. The focus is on the exponential…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
We study epidemic models where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the infection age (the elapsed time of infection). To describe the epidemic evolution dynamics, we use a stochastic process that tracks the number of…
The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a new susceptible-infected model which consists of a susceptible group ($S$) and two different infectious groups ($I_1$ and $I_2$). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of…
In this survey paper, we review the recent advances in individual based non--Markovian epidemic models. They include epidemic models with a constant infectivity rate, varying infectivity rate or infection-age dependent infectivity,…
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…
This paper investigates the long-time dynamics of a nonlocal epidemic model with free boundaries, where a pathogen with density $u(t,x)$ and the infected humans with density $v(t,x)$ evolve according to a reaction-diffusion system with…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
We formulate an age-structured nonlinear partial differential equation model that features short-term immigration effects in a population. Individuals can immigrate into the population as any of the three stages in the model: susceptible,…
We investigate the effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on the timescale and final size of infectious disease epidemics. The abundance of transitive relationships (the number of 3 cliques) in a network and the variance of…