Related papers: Mortality decrease and mathematical limit of longe…
We introduce a broad class of spatial models to describe how spatially heterogeneous populations live, die, and reproduce. Individuals are represented by points of a point measure, whose birth and death rates can depend both on spatial…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
Although maturation delays are frequently included in population models, researchers rarely account for mortality between birth and maturity. Previous discrete population models have included mortality of immature individuals during the…
Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…
Alignment between subjective sense of time and chronological time can become skewed as a result of pharmacological interventions, neurodegenerative diseases (such as Parkinson's disease), or even in the moments preceding brain death.…
This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…
The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…
We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…
Aging research has produced powerful explanatory frameworks -- evolutionary theories, the Hallmarks of Aging, SENS, geroscience, hyperfunction, and information-loss models -- yet none provides quantitative rules for determining which…
Some populations, such as red blood cells (RBCs), exhibit a pattern of population decline that is closer to linear rather than exponential, which has proven to be unexpectedly challenging to describe with a single simple mathematical model.…
The radial equation of a simple potential model has long been known to yield an exponential decay law in lowest order (Breit-Wigner) approximation. We demonstrate that if the calculation is extended to fourth order the decay law exhibits…
Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…
We propose a new parametrization of the deceleration parameter to study its time-variation behavior. The advantage of parameterizing the deceleration parameter is that we do not need to assume any underlying theory of gravity. By fitting…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…
Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…
Predicting an individual's aging trajectory is a central challenge in preventative medicine and bioinformatics. While machine learning models can predict chronological age from biomarkers, they often fail to capture the dynamic,…
We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a…
We present a mathematical simplification for the evolutionary dynamics of a heritable trait within a two-sex population. This trait is assumed to control the timing of sex-specific life-history events, such as the age of sexual maturity and…