Related papers: Correlations between hurricane numbers and sea sur…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally…
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…
Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…
The proposition that the tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the warm pool, the area enclosed by the 26C SST isotherm, is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
In previous work we have analysed the Atlantic basin hurricane number time-series to identify decadal time-scale change points. We now repeat the analysis but for US landfalling hurricanes. The results are very different.
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year?…
We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of…
Understanding surface temperature is important for habitability. Recent work on Mars has found that the dependence of surface temperature on elevation (surface lapse rate) converges to zero in the limit of a thin CO2 atmosphere. However,…