Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2007-05-23 v2
Abstract
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.
Cite
@article{arxiv.physics/0701166,
title = {Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions},
author = {Stephen Jewson and Thomas Laepple and Adam O'Shay and Jeremy Penzer and Enrica Bellone and Kechi Nzerem},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0701166},
year = {2007}
}
Comments
Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper