Related papers: Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…
One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of…
There is significant correlation between main development region sea surface temperature and the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin. The correlation between the same sea surface temperatures and the number of…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year?…
We compare classical and Bayesian methods for fitting the poisson distribution to the number of hurricanes making landfall on sections of the US coastline.
In previous work we have analysed the Atlantic basin hurricane number time-series to identify decadal time-scale change points. We now repeat the analysis but for US landfalling hurricanes. The results are very different.
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…