Related papers: On the volatility of volatility
Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the…
This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices.…
Extracting market expectations has always been an important issue when making national policies and investment decisions in financial markets. In option markets, the most popular way has been to extract implied volatilities to assess the…
We analyze correlations between squared volatility indices, VIX and VXO, and realized variances -- the known one, for the current month, and the predicted one, for the following month. We show that the ratio of the two is best fitted by a…
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations…
We show that the Realized GARCH model yields close-form expression for both the Volatility Index (VIX) and the volatility risk premium (VRP). The Realized GARCH model is driven by two shocks, a return shock and a volatility shock, and these…
The VIX call options for the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models will be discussed. Derivatives written on the VIX, which is the most popular volatility measurement, have been traded actively very much. In this paper, we give…
This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…
This paper examines systematic put-writing strategies applied to S&P 500 Index options, with a focus on position sizing as a key determinant of long-term performance. Despite the well-documented volatility risk premium, where implied…
In this paper we formulate a regression problem to predict realized volatility by using option price data and enhance VIX-styled volatility indices' predictability and liquidity. We test algorithms including regularized regression and…
We study the volatility of the S&P500 stock index from 1984 to 1996 and find that the volatility distribution can be very well described by a log-normal function. Further, using detrended fluctuation analysis we show that the volatility is…
Volatility prediction in the financial market helps to understand the profit and involved risks in investment. However, due to irregularities, high fluctuations, and noise in the time series, predicting volatility poses a challenging task.…
We study distributions of realized variance (squared realized volatility) and squared implied volatility, as represented by VIX and VXO indices. We find that Generalized Beta distribution provide the best fits. These fits are much more…
Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility of daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market forces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund cannot…
We analyze the VIX futures market with a focus on the exchange-traded notes written on such contracts, in particular we investigate the VXX notes tracking the short-end part of the futures term structure. Inspired by recent developments in…
We investigate the relationships of the VIX with US and BRIC markets. In detail, we pick up the analysis from the point left off by (Sarwar, 2012), and we focus on the period: Jan 2007 - Feb 2018, thus capturing the relations before, during…
The Heston stochastic volatility model is arguably, the most popular stochastic volatility model used to price and risk manage exotic derivatives. In spite of this, it is not necessarily easy to calibrate to the market and obtain stable…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
We propose a new measure of systemic risk to analyze the impact of the major financial market turmoils in the stock markets from 2000 to 2023 in the USA, Europe, Brazil, and Japan. Our Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Systemic Risk…
We study the impact of volatility on intraday serial correlation, at time scales of less than 20 minutes, exploiting a data set with all transaction on SPX500 futures from 1993 to 2001. We show that, while realized volatility and intraday…