Related papers: On the volatility of volatility
40 days after the start of the international monitoring of COVID-19, we search for the effect of official announcements regarding new cases of infection and death ratio on the financial markets volatility index (VIX). Whereas the new cases…
Volatility in stock markets has been extensively studied in the applied finance literature. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network models based on various back propagation algorithms have been constructed to predict volatility in the…
We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 until 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility $\sigma(t)$ which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…
Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…
The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper,…
We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE…
In this paper we examine the relation between market returns and volatility measures through machine learning methods in a high-frequency environment. We implement a minute-by-minute rolling window intraday estimation method using two…
In financial markets, accurately measuring the risk of future fluctuations in asset prices is of paramount importance. Studies such as Carr and Madan have shown that the expected value of the quadratic variation of log prices can be…
We derive a semi-analytical pricing formula for European VIX call options under the Heston-Hawkes stochastic volatility model introduced in arXiv:2210.15343. This arbitrage-free model incorporates the volatility clustering feature by adding…
Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the…
We introduce a simple stochastic volatility model, whose novelty consists in taking into account hitting times of the asset price, and study the optimal stopping problem corresponding to a put option whose time horizon (after the asset…
A variance swap is a derivative with a path-dependent payoff which allows investors to take positions on the future variability of an asset. In the idealised setting of a continuously monitored variance swap written on an asset with…
To take into account the temporal dimension of uncertainty in stock markets, this paper introduces a cross-sectional estimation of stock market volatility based on the intrinsic entropy model. The proposed cross-sectional intrinsic entropy…
We study the pricing of VIX options in the SABR model $dS_t = \sigma_t S_t^\beta dB_t, d\sigma_t = \omega \sigma_t dZ_t$ where $B_t,Z_t$ are standard Brownian motions correlated with correlation $\rho<0$ and $0 \leq \beta < 1$. VIX is…
In this paper we study the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for European and arithmetic Asian call options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow the Bachelier model with a general stochastic…
One of the major issues studied in finance that has always intrigued, both scholars and practitioners, and to which no unified theory has yet been discovered, is the reason why prices move over time. Since there are several well-known…
We create a time series model for annual returns of three asset classes: the USA Standard & Poor (S&P) stock index, the international stock index, and the USA Bank of America investment-grade corporate bond index. Using this, we made an…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…