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Justifying the Volatility of S&P 500 Daily Returns

Mathematical Finance 2024-11-14 v2

Abstract

Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility of daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market forces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund cannot outperform a standard S&P 500 fund in the long run. Then this hypothetical volatility happens to support the increase in volatility seen in the S&P 500 index. On this basis, it appears that the classic argument of the market portfolio being unbeatable in the long run is determining the volatility of S&P 500 daily returns. Moreover, it follows that the long-term volatility of the daily returns for the S&P 500 Index should continue to increase until passing a particular threshold. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis about market forces increasing volatility is invalid, then there is room for daily leveraged S&P 500 funds to outperform their unleveraged counterparts in the long run.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2403.01088,
  title  = {Justifying the Volatility of S&P 500 Daily Returns},
  author = {Hayden Brown},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.01088},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

The original version has been improved significantly here