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Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…
Scaling analysis, in which one infers scaling exponents and a scaling function in a scaling law from given data, is a powerful tool for determining universal properties of critical phenomena in many fields of science. However, there are…
Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…
Modelling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model, and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding…
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick…
In this article, we introduce a kernel-based consensual aggregation method for regression problems. We aim to flexibly combine individual regression estimators $r_1, r_2, \ldots, r_M$ using a weighted average where the weights are defined…
It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches…
Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Spread regression is an extension of linear regression that allows for the inclusion of a predictor that contains information about the variance. It can be used to take the information from a weather forecast ensemble and produce a…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…
To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…
Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use of the…
When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…
In this review, we assess the use of Bayesian methods in model predictive control (MPC), focusing on neural-network-based modeling, control design, and uncertainty quantification. We systematically analyze individual studies and how they…
Reliable models of the thermodynamic properties of materials are critical for industrially relevant applications that require a good understanding of equilibrium phase diagrams, thermal and chemical transport, and microstructure evolution.…
In this paper we develop a new general Bayesian methodology that simultaneously estimates parameters of interest and the marginal likelihood of the model. The proposed methodology builds on Simulated Tempering, which is a powerful algorithm…
Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…