Related papers: Probabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments…

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. Statistical postprocessing can correct for biases in the…

Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…

Traditionally model averaging has been viewed as an alternative to model selection with the ultimate goal to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the model selection process in standard errors and confidence intervals by using a…

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…

This article studies Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of competing expensive computer models in a typical nuclear physics setup. While it is well known that BMA accounts for the additional uncertainty of the model itself, we…

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to create calibrated predictive probability…

We propose a novel approach to model selection for simulator-based statistical models. The proposed approach defines a mixture of candidate models, and then iteratively updates the weight coefficients for those models as well as the…

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…

We propose Bayesian extensions of two nonparametric regression methods which are kernel and mutual $k$-nearest neighbor regression methods. Derived based on Gaussian process models for regression, the extensions provide distributions for…

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…

We consider the problem of aggregating predictions or measurements from a set of human forecasters, models, sensors or other instruments which may be subject to bias or miscalibration and random heteroscedastic noise. We propose a Bayesian…

A general challenge in statistics is prediction in the presence of multiple candidate models or learning algorithms. Model aggregation tries to combine all predictive distributions from individual models, which is more stable and flexible…

The problem of combining individual forecasters to produce a forecaster with improved performance is considered. The connections between probability elicitation and classification are used to pose the combining forecaster problem as that of…

Ensemble methods are widely employed to improve generalization in machine learning. This has also prompted the adoption of ensemble learning for the knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models in performing link prediction. Typical approaches to…

Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by…