Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2010-06-29 v1
Abstract
Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use of the well-known Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to make the decision as to whether a forecast should be used or ignored.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1006.5327,
title = {Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them},
author = {Stephen Jewson and Dan Rowlands},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1006.5327},
year = {2010}
}