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Accurate forecasts of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke are crucial to safeguarding cardiopulmonary public health. Existing forecasting systems are trained on sparse and inaccurate ground truths, and do not take…
Physical Wavelets observe the large earthquake genesis processes of several months in a regional seismic catalog, suggesting the predictability of location, fault movement and size, and rupture time with an accuracy of up to a day and up to…
The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…
In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…
Modelling wildfire events has been studied in the literature using the Poisson process, which essentially assumes the independence of wildfire events. In this paper, we use the fractional Poisson process to model the wildfire occurrences in…
A method for estimating the true meteor rate \lambda\ from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the…
Several authors have noticed the signature of log-periodic oscillations prior to large stock market crashes [cond-mat/9509033, cond-mat/9510036, Vandewalle et al 1998]. Unfortunately good fits of the corresponding equation to stock market…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
We determine the volcano climate sensitivity and response time for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. This is achieved using observational measurements of the temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere and the aerosol optical density (AOD) in…
Recent works have presented promising results from the application of machine learning (ML) to the modeling of flow rates in oil and gas wells. Encouraging results and advantageous properties of ML models, such as computationally cheap…
The policy environment of countries changes rapidly, influencing macro-level indicators such as the Energy Security Index. However, this index is only reported annually, limiting its responsiveness to short-term fluctuations. To address…
Atomic clock technology is advancing rapidly, now reaching stabilities of $\Delta f/f \sim 10^{-18}$, which corresponds to resolving $1$ cm in equivalent geoid height over an integration timescale of about 7 hours. At this level of…
Reservoir characterization involves the estimation petrophysical properties from well-log data and seismic data. Estimating such properties is a challenging task due to the non-linearity and heterogeneity of the subsurface. Various attempts…
The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the…
Future detection of a supernova neutrino burst by large underground detectors would give important information for the explosion mechanism of collapse-driven supernovae. We studied the statistical analysis for the future detection of a…
Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) is a typical forecasting method with wide application. Traditional FTSF is regarded as an expert system which leads to loss of the ability to recognize undefined features. The mentioned is the main…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…