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Extreme-scale scientific applications can be more vulnerable to soft errors (transient faults) as high-performance computing systems increase in scale. The common practice to evaluate the resilience to faults of an application is random…
In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of…
The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity is the result of a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning…
Wildfire frequency is increasing as the climate changes, and the resulting air pollution poses health risks. Just as people routinely use hourly weather forecasts to plan their day's activities around precipitation, reliable hourly air…
A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the…
The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive…
The forecasting of meteor showers is currently very good at predicting the timing of meteor outbursts, but still needs further work regarding the level of a given shower. Moreover, uncertainties are rarely provided, leaving the end user…
The real-time motion prediction of a floating offshore platform refers to forecasting its motions in the following one- or two-wave cycles, which helps improve the performance of a motion compensation system and provides useful early…
We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…
In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…
We study the distribution of the time to explosion for one-dimensional diffusions. We relate this question to computing the expectations of suitable nonnegative local martingales, and to the distributions of related diffusions with unit…
The probability distribution of inter-event time (IET) between two consecutive earthquakes is a measure for the uncertainty in the occurrence time of earthquakes in a region of interest. It is well known that the IET distribution for…
We present a new model for the probability that the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index exceeds -100 nT, with a lead time between 1 and 3 days. $Dst$ provides essential information about the strength of the ring current around the Earth…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…
Lava emplacement is a complex physical phenomenon, affected by several factors. These include, but are not limited to features of the terrain, the lava settling process, the effusion rate or total erupted volume, and the probability of…
This study analyzes near-infrared measurements of Io, Jupiter's moon, observed over 170 nights from 2016 to early 2022 using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). During this period, seven new volcanic outbursts, the most energetic…
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…
Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…