Estimating meteor rates using Bayesian inference
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
2011-12-20 v1 Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Applications
Abstract
A method for estimating the true meteor rate \lambda\ from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the adoption of Jeffreys prior, P(\lambda)=\lambda^{-0.5}, which yields an expectation value E(\lambda) = n+0.5 for any n \geq 0. We update the ZHR meteor activity formula accordingly, and explain how 68%- and 95%-confidence intervals can be computed.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1112.4372,
title = {Estimating meteor rates using Bayesian inference},
author = {Geert Barentsen and Rainer Arlt and Hans-Erich Fröhlich},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1112.4372},
year = {2011}
}
Comments
WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, 39:5 (2011)