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Summary: In the past decade both scientists and laymen have probably heard at least once through the newspapers, TV and Internet that a new asteroid has been discovered with non-zero (sometimes "high") probability of collision with the…

Space Physics · Physics 2013-04-29 Germano D'Abramo

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the US and European space agencies (NASA and ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-02-21 Clemens Rumpf , Hugh G. Lewis , Peter M. Atkinson

Near-Earth objects (NEOs) have the potential to cause extensive damage and loss of life on Earth. Advancements in NEO discovery, trajectory prediction, and deflection technology indicate that an impact could be prevented, with sufficient…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-06 C. R. Nugent , K. P. Andersen , James M. Bauer , C. T. Jensen , L. K. Kristiansen , C. P. Hansen , M. M. Nielsen , C. F. Vestergård

Robust impact monitoring of near-Earth objects is an essential task of planetary defense. Current systems such as NASA's Sentry-II, the University of Pisa's CLOMON2, and ESA's Aegis have been highly successful, but independent approaches…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-25 Dmitrii E. Vavilov , Daniel Hestroffer

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-08-09 Javier Roa , Davide Farnocchia , Steven R. Chesley

The catalog of km-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs) is nearly complete. Typical impact monitoring analyses search for possible impacts over the next 100 years and none of the km-sized objects represent an impact threat over that time…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-28 Oscar Fuentes-Muñoz , Daniel J. Scheeres , Davide Farnocchia , Ryan S. Park

This paper presents a robust linear method for impact probability estimation of near-Earth asteroids with the Earth. This method is a significantly modified and improved method, which uses a special curvilinear coordinate system associated…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-08 Dmitrii E. Vavilov

We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-12 Otto Solin , Mikael Granvik

By means of a fully connected artificial neural network, we identified asteroids with the potential to impact Earth. The resulting instrument, named the Hazardous Object Identifier (HOI), was trained on the basis of an artificial set of…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-05 John D. Hefele , Francesco Bortolussi , Simon Portegies Zwart

Numerical modeling has long suggested that gravitationally-bound (or so-called rubble-pile) near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) can be destroyed by tidal forces during close and slow encounters with terrestrial planets. However, tidal disruptions…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-01-09 Mikael Granvik , Kevin J. Walsh

Imminent impactors are natural bodies discovered in space before impacting the Earth. They provide a rare opportunity to characterize individual near-Earth objects (NEOs) in great detail as asteroids in space, meteors in Earth's atmosphere…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-09 Ian Chow , Mario Jurić , R. Lynne Jones , Kathleen Kiker , Joachim Moeyens , Peter G. Brown , Aren N. Heinze , Jacob A. Kurlander

The interest in the problem of small asteroids observed shortly before a deep close approach or an impact with the Earth has grown a lot in recent years. Since the observational dataset of such objects is very limited, they deserve…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-20 Alessio Del Vigna , Linda Dimare , Davide Bracali Cioci

Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2016-01-05 C. de la Fuente Marcos , R. de la Fuente Marcos

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit Minor Planet…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-10 Sage Li , Alex Geringer-Sameth , Nathan Golovich

Close encounters of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) with large asteroids are a possible source of systematic errors in trajectory propagations and asteroid mitigation. It is, thus, necessary to identify those large asteroids that have to be…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-07-15 Anatoliy Ivantsov , Siegfried Eggl , Daniel Hestroffer , William Thuillot , Pini Gurfil

Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their…

Space Physics · Physics 2015-02-23 Clemens Rumpf

We have made an extensive search for grouping amongst the near Earth asteroids (NEAs). We used two D- functions and rigorous cluster analysis approach. We have found sev- eral new groups (associations) among the NEAs: the objects moving on…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-03-04 Tadeusz J. Jopek

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that may evolve into impactors deserve detailed threat assessment studies. Early physical characterization of a would-be impactor may help in optimizing impact mitigation plans. We first detected NEA…

An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface…

Space Physics · Physics 2017-02-21 Clemens M. Rumpf , Hugh G. Lewis , Peter M. Atkinson

Hazardous asteroid has been one of the concerns for humankind as fallen asteroid on earth could cost a huge impact on the society.Monitoring these objects could help predict future impact events, but such efforts are hindered by the large…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-05 Thai Duy Quy , Alvin Buana , Josh Lee , Rakha Asyrofi
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