Related papers: Forecast and event control: On what is and what ca…

An optimal control problem for the continuity equation is considered. The aim of a "controller" is to maximize the total mass within a target set at a given time moment. The existence of optimal controls is established. For a particular…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

This note is addressed to giving a short introduction to control theory of stochastic systems, governed by stochastic differential equations in both finite and infinite dimensions. We will mainly explain the new phenomenon and difficulties…

It is often claimed that the fundamental laws of physics are deterministic and time-symmetric and that therefore our experience of the passage of time is an illusion. This paper will critically discuss these claims and show that they are…

Several theoretical results concerning event-by-event fluctuations are discussed: (1) a role of the global conservation laws and concept of statistical ensembles; (2) strongly intensive measures are introduced; they give a possibility to…

In formation control, an ensemble of autonomous agents is required to stabilize at a given configuration in the plane, doing so while agents are allowed to observe only a subset of the ensemble. As such, formation control provides a rich…

The defining characteristic of event-based control is that feedback loops are only closed when indicated by a triggering condition that takes recent information about the system into account. This stands in contrast to periodic control…

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

One of quantum theory's salient features is its apparent indeterminism, i.e. measurement outcomes are typically probabilistic. We formally define and address whether this uncertainty is unavoidable or whether post-quantum theories can offer…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

This article discusses the possibility of predicting human behavior in a mechanism. Such a mechanism will have certain properties, which are defined and discussed here. Here it is shown that, unfortunately, certain property combinations are…

Curiously overlooked in physics is its dependence on the transmission of numbers. For example the transmission of numerical clock readings is implicit in the concept of a coordinate system. The transmission of numbers and other logical…

The problem of measurement in quantum mechanics is reanalyzed within a general, strictly probabilistic framework (without reduction postulate). Based on a novel comprehensive definition of measurement the natural emergence of objective…

Recent studies have analyzed whether one forecast method dominates another under a class of consistent scoring functions. While the existing literature focuses on empirical tests of forecast dominance, little is known about the theoretical…

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme…

According to recent results, convergence in a prespecified or prescribed finite time can be achieved under extreme model uncertainty if control is applied continuously over time. This paper shows that this extreme amount of uncertainty…

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…

A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…