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We investigate a model of a parasite population invading spatially distributed immobile hosts on a graph, which is a modification of the frog model. Each host has an unbreakable immunity against infection with a certain probability $1-p$…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Sascha Franck

We present a novel model that describes the within-host evolutionary dynamics of parasites undergoing antigenic variation. The approach uses a multi-type branching process with two types of entities defined according to their relationship…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-11-18 Gustavo Guerberoff , Fernando Alvarez-Valin

The asymptotic behavior of a stochastic network represented by a birth and death processes of particles on a compact state space is analyzed. Births: Particles are created at rate $\lambda_+$ and their location is independent of the current…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-12 Philippe Robert

We investigate the contact process on four different types of scale-free inhomogeneous random graphs evolving according to a stationary dynamics, where each potential edge is updated with a rate depending on the strength of the adjacent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-03 Emmanuel Jacob , Amitai Linker , Peter Mörters

From pathogens and computer viruses to genes and memes, contagion models have found widespread utility across the natural and social sciences. Despite their success and breadth of adoption, the approach and structure of these models remain…

During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-21 Makoto Ueki , Robin N. Thompson , Murad Banaji

Understanding how stochastic and non-linear deterministic processes interact is a major challenge in population dynamics theory. After a short review, we introduce a stochastic individual-centered particle model to describe the evolution in…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-29 Regis Ferriere , Viet Chi Tran

We study a generalization of the classical contact process (SIS epidemic model) in a directed graph $G$. Our model is a continuous-time interacting particle system in which at every time, each vertex is either healthy or infected, and each…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-26 Shirshendu Chatterjee , David Sivakoff , Matthew Wascher

Face-to-face interactions reveal recurring patterns, suggesting the possibility of shared underlying mechanisms. More specifically, inter-contact durations, contact durations and number of contacts per edge share similar heavy-tail…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-02 Juliette Gambaudo , Mathieu Génois

Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-20 Matthijs Romeijnders , Michiel van Boven , Debabrata Panja

A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-25 Mansi Sood , Anirudh Sridhar , Rashad Eletreby , Chai Wah Wu , Simon A. Levin , H. Vincent Poor , Osman Yagan

We investigate the time evolution and stationary states of a stochastic, spatially discrete, population model (contact process) with spatial heterogeneity and imposed drift (wind) in one- and two-dimensions. We consider in particular a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jaewook Joo , Joel L. Lebowitz

Mechanisms of immunity, and of the host-pathogen interactions in general are among the most fundamental problems of medicine, ecology, and evolution studies. Here, we present a microscopic, protein-level, sequence-based model of immune…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2007-11-22 Muyoung Heo , Konstantin B. Zeldovich , Eugene I. Shakhnovich

The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-28 Todd Parsons , Amaury Lambert , Troy Day , Sylvain Gandon

In this paper, we study the significance of ecological interactions and separation of birth and death dynamics in stochastic heterogeneous populations via general birth-death processes. Interactions can manifest through the birth dynamics,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-03 Erin Beckman , Heyrim Cho , Linh Huynh

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-09 Luis E C Rocha , Naoki Masuda

As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-29 Pierre Barrat-Charlaix , Richard A. Neher

Within the germinal center in follicles, B-cells proliferate, mutate and differentiate, while being submitted to a powerful selection~: a micro-evolutionary mechanism at the heart of adaptive immunity. A new foreign pathogen is confronted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Irene Balelli , Vuk Milisic , Gilles Wainrib

Resistance to insecticide is considered nowadays one of the major threats to insect control, as its occurrence reduces drastically the efficiency of chemical control campaigns, and may also perturb the application of other control methods,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-24 Pastor E. Pérez-Estigarribia , Pierre-Alexandre Bliman , Christian Schaerer

In this study, we propose a novel model describing the coevolution between hosts and pathogens, based on a non-local partial differential equation formalism for populations structured by phenotypic traits. Our objective with this model is…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-09-05 Matthieu Alfaro , Florian Lavigne , Lionel Roques
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