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We propose a contrast-based estimation method for Gaussian processes with time-inhomogeneous drifts, observed under high-frequency sampling. The process is modeled as the sum of a deterministic drift function and a stationary Gaussian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Yasutaka Shimizu

This work addresses the interpolation of probability measures within a spatial statistics framework. We develop a Kriging approach in the Wasserstein space, leveraging the quantile function representation of the one-dimensional Wasserstein…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Florian Gossard , François Bachoc , Jean Baccou , Thibaut Le Gouic , Jacques Liandrat , Tony Glantz

We present an $O^*(n^3)$ randomized algorithm for estimating the volume of a well-rounded convex body given by a membership oracle, improving on the previous best complexity of $O^*(n^4)$. The new algorithmic ingredient is an accelerated…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-12-06 Ben Cousins , Santosh Vempala

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-09-15 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

The intrinsic volumes of Gaussian polytopes are considered. A lower variance bound for these quantities is proved, showing that, under suitable normalization, the variances converge to strictly positive limits. The implications of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Imre Bárány , Christoph Thaele

This paper introduces a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood is approximated directly by making novel use of a continuously specified Gaussian random field. We show that for…

Computation · Statistics 2015-11-02 Daniel Simpson , Janine Illian , Finn Lindgren , Sigrunn Sørbye , Håvard Rue

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Hongqiao Wang , Guang Lin , Jinglai Li

We focus on the problem of estimating and quantifying uncertainties on the excursion set of a function under a limited evaluation budget. We adopt a Bayesian approach where the objective function is assumed to be a realization of a Gaussian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-02 Dario Azzimonti , Julien Bect , Clément Chevalier , David Ginsbourger

Efficient information processing is crucial for both living organisms and engineered systems. The mutual information rate, a core concept of information theory, quantifies the amount of information shared between the trajectories of input…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-01 Manuel Reinhardt , Age J. Tjalma , Anne-Lena Moor , Christoph Zechner , Pieter Rein ten Wolde

We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Andrew M. Stuart , Aretha L. Teckentrup

Gaussian processes are distributions over functions that are versatile and mathematically convenient priors in Bayesian modelling. However, their use is often impeded for data with large numbers of observations, $N$, due to the cubic (in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-04 David R. Burt , Carl Edward Rasmussen , Mark van der Wilk

Following H. Tomita and C. Murakami we propose an analytical model to predict critical probability of percolation. It is based on the excursion set theory which allows us to consider N-dimensional bounded regions. Details are given for the…

Materials Science · Physics 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Roubin , Jean-Baptiste Colliat

The multivariate central limit theorems (CLT) for the volumes of excursion sets of stationary quasi-associated random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$ are proved. Special attention is paid to Gaussian and shot noise fields. Formulae for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-02 Alexander Bulinski , Evgeny Spodarev , Florian Timmermann

In the Big Data era, with the ubiquity of geolocation sensors in particular, massive datasets exhibiting a possibly complex spatial dependence structure are becoming increasingly available. In this context, the standard probabilistic theory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-05 Emilia Siviero , Emilie Chautru , Stephan Clémençon

The computation of Gaussian orthant probabilities has been extensively studied for low-dimensional vectors. Here, we focus on the high-dimensional case and we present a two-step procedure relying on both deterministic and stochastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-03 Dario Azzimonti , David Ginsbourger

For a semi-martingale $X_t$, which forms a stochastic boundary, a rate-optimal estimator for its quadratic variation $\langle X, X \rangle_t$ is constructed based on observations in the vicinity of $X_t$. The problem is embedded in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-24 Markus Bibinger , Moritz Jirak , Markus Reiß

In this paper we provide an upper bound for the conjunction probability of independent Gaussian smooth processes and then we prove that this bound is a good approximation with exponentially smaller error. Our result confirms the heuristic…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Viet-Hung Pham

In this paper, we use the concept of excursion sets for the extrapolation of stationary random fields. Doing so, we define excursion sets for the field and its linear predictor, and then minimize the expected volume of the symmetric…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-15 Abhinav Das , Vitalii Makogin , Evgeny Spodarev

We study Gaussian approximations to the distribution of a diffusion. The approximations are easy to compute: they are defined by two simple ordinary differential equations for the mean and the covariance. Time correlations can also be…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Andrew M. Stuart

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a ubiquitous tool for geostatistical modeling with high levels of flexibility and interpretability, and the ability to make predictions at unseen spatial locations through a process called Kriging. Estimation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-12 Brandon R. Feng , Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Mohamed A. Abba